Steady As She Goes

Good morning. Although we're getting a late start to the week, market analysis definitely falls into the "better late than never" category. So, let's go ahead and review my key market models/indicators and see where we stand. To review, the primary goal of this exercise is to try and remove any subjective notions about what "should" be happening in the market in an attempt to stay in line with what "is" happening in the markets. So, let's get started.

The State of the Trend

We start our review each week with a look at the "state of the trend." These indicators are designed to give us a feel for the overall health of the current short- and intermediate-term trend models.


View Trend Indicator Board Online

Executive Summary:

  • The short-term Trend Model likes nothing more than new all-time highs.
  • Both Channel Breakout Systems remain on their 8/22 buy signals and are in stellar shape.
  • Not surprising that the intermediate- and long-term Trend Models are solidly positive.
  • The market continues to thumb its nose at the historical cycles, which means that the Cycle Composite is currently "out of whack" with what the market "is" doing.
  • Two of the three Trading Mode models now indicate the market is in a trending environment. The fact that these models have lagged and that one is still in "mean reversion" mode suggests that the current move doesn't have a lot of "oomph" behind it.
  • Overall though, not much to complain about from a trend standpoint.

The State of Internal Momentum

Next up are the momentum indicators, which are designed to tell us whether there is any "oomph" behind the current trend...


View Momentum Indicator Board Online

Executive Summary:

  • Both the short- and intermediate-term Trend and Breadth Confirm Models remain positive. This tells us that "market breadth" ...
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The Daily Decision for 10.3.17 -- LEADERS Model +17.5% YTD

Publishing Note: I am traveling the rest of the week and have some very early commitments. Thus we will not publish Daily Updates but we will publish TRADE ALERTS before any adjustments are made to the portfolio.

TODAY'S PORTFOLIO REVIEW: ...

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If You Knew What Would Happen Next...

As I have mentioned a time or two in the past, I think one of the biggest lessons investors (professional or otherwise) need to learn is to put the T.V. on mute, to avoid reading everything on the internet, to ...

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Indicator Review: Looking For Confirmation

Good morning. Sadly, the first week of October starts with the news of the deadliest gunman attack in U.S. history. So, let me first say that our thoughts and prayers go out to the victims, the injured, and all those ...

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The Daily Decision for 9.29.17 - LEADERS up +16.3% YTD

TODAY'S PORTFOLIO REVIEW:

LEADERS Model: The LEADERS model currently holds positions in the Technology, Financial, and Industrial sectors. It is worth noting that Materials are about to break into the top ranks and Health Care is also performing well. As ...

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What, Me Worry?

As long-time readers are likely aware, I believe in trying to keep portfolios "in tune" with the primary market trend. In this case, we're talking about the bull market in stocks, which began either on March 9, 2009, September 26, ...

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Final Thought On Valuations: The Bears Could Be Wrong

I've spent a fair amount time recently talking about the various risks of the current market environment. In short, my view is that risk factors are elevated at this time from a macro perspective. I have suggested that this is ...

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Another Take on Valuation - It's Not As Bad As You Might Think

Yesterday's dive in the high profile FAANGs, which was highlighted by a $7.87 (4.49%) decline in Facebook (NYSE: FB) led to renewed discussion in the bear camp about the risk levels in the overall market. To hear the our furry ...

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Bulls Ignore Seasonality and March On

Good Monday morning and welcome back. It's a new week, so let's start things off with an objective review of my key market models/indicators and see where we stand. To review, the primary goal of this exercise is to try ...

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The Daily Decision for 9.21.17 - Leaders Up +15.6% YTD

TODAY'S PORTFOLIO REVIEW:

LEADERS Model: The LEADERS model currently holds positions in the Technology, Financial, and Industrial sectors. As for performance, we continue to be pleased as the LEADERS model is up +15.6% ytd compared to 12.0% for S&P 500. ...

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Will "QT" Usher In The Great Bond Bear?

And now it begins - the "QT" era, that is. After spending nine years doing everything it could dream up to keep the U.S. economy from entering a disinflationary spiral, the Fed will officially begin to "unwind" its balance sheet ...

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Understanding The "Elevated Risk" Concept

I have been saying for some time now that the stock market is not a low risk proposition at this stage of the game. There are several reasons for taking this stance, but Exhibit A in this argument is the ...

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