Am I Wrong To Be A Little Concerned?

Well it's official. As of Friday's close (a close that was likely influenced by the quad-witching event and a handful of S&P index rebalances), the S&P 500 is now up +20.05% from the 12/24/18 panic low. Wow talk about a joyride to the upside!

Along with the market's surge higher, which, for the record, has NOT experienced the typical "retest" phase, comes a healthy dose of "seller's remorse" (you know, where anyone silly enough to think that December's dance to the downside was anything more than a brief bout of "algos gone wild," is now regretting their decision to manage the risk of the environment), S&P "envy" (be honest, how many advisors out there have taken calls recently about "keeping up with the S&P?"), and a little something called FOMO (fear of missing out). And from my seat, all of the above have combined to produce the relentless march higher.

The headlines touted last week's action (which at +2.9% was the best gain since November) as a resumption of the trend. A breakout. And a reason to celebrate.

FOMO Baby!

In speaking with fellow financial pros last week, the takeaway was that the investing public has been quick to simply brush aside the -19.8% decline that occurred between September 26 and Christmas eve. And since the Fed is apparently (key word) on hold and the trade deal (the deal that technically has not yet been reached) is expected to rejuvenate the global economy, investors appear to be most concerned about not missing the upside from here.

It seems that everything looks great now and once the trade deal gets inked, both economic and earnings growth are sure to surge, right?

As a result, last fall's fear of policy ...

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Let's Call It Constructive

The fact that stocks pulled back a bit last week shouldn't have come as a surprise to anyone. The S&P 500 had enjoyed an historic joyride to the upside in a very short period of time. As in +19 ...

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Thirteen Charts Tell The Story

It is said that a picture is worth a thousand words. So, this week, I've decided to try and sum up the keys to the current market environment with a series of charts and graphs. I started out looking ...

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The Message From The Models: The Bulls Are In Charge, But...

It was a busy weekend of birthday celebrations (we had 2) and important family events in my household (our youngest is moving into her first apartment!) and as such, I didn't take the opportunity to spend a couple hours ...

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Party On, Wayne!

The joyride to the upside in the stock market continued last week as the S&P 500 surged another 2.5%. If my calculator is correct, this means the venerable blue-chip index is now up 10.7% so far in 2019 ...

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Bull vs. Bear. The Line In The Sand?

On Tuesday, February 5 and again on Wednesday, February 6, the S&P 500 bumped into its 200-day moving average. While I'm not exactly sure why this particular indicator captures the attention of so many (there are a myriad of ...

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Herd Behavior

"Herd behavior, or the tendency of individuals in a group to 'follow the trend,' has frequently been observed in equity markets. Herd behavior in investors leads to a convergence of action." [Yan, Zhao, Sun (2012)]


"Theoretical models on herd behavior ...

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Where Do Things Stand Now?

To be sure, it is rare to see the mood of the market swing from the depths of despair seen on Christmas Eve to the "happy days are here again" feeling of last week in such a short period of ...

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All Clear?

The bad news is that after a rather rambunctious rally, the S&P 500 remains -8.9% from its all-time high. The good news is that after the -19.8% shellacking that ended on Christmas Eve, the stock market now starts ...

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Is Enough Baked In?

After a very scary decline and then an impressive rally, the question most investors are probably asking themselves is, where are we now?

In order to get our bearings, let's review where we've been. Recall that as of ...

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The Daily Decision for 1.7.19 - The Magic Words


The State of the Markets:

Well that was fun. Don't look now fans, but after Friday's joyride to the upside, the S&P 500 is up nearly 8% from its Christmas Eve low and is now down only -13 ...

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The Magic Words

Well that was fun. Don't look now fans, but after Friday's joyride to the upside, the S&P 500 is up nearly 8% from its Christmas Eve low and is now down only -13.3% from the most recent ...

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