Indicator Review: Not Much To Complain About

Good Monday morning and welcome back. It's the start of a new week so let's get right to our objective review the key market models and indicators and see where things stand. To review, the primary goal of this weekly exercise is to remove any subjective notions I might have in an effort to stay in line with what "is" happening in the markets.

The State of the Trend

We start each week with a look at the "state of the trend." These indicators are designed to give us a feel for the overall health of the current short- and intermediate-term trend models.


View Trend Indicator Board Online

Executive Summary:

  • With the Dow and S&P 500 closing at new all-time highs on Friday, it is not surprising to see the short-term Trend Model positive.
  • Both the short- and intermediate-term Channel Breakout Systems remains positive
  • The intermediate-term Trend Model looks good.
  • The long-term Trend Model is also a bright shade of green at this time
  • The Cycle Composite points down this week before turning up for the next two.
  • The Trading Mode models continue to point to a mean-reverting environment

The State of Internal Momentum

Next up are the momentum indicators, which are designed to tell us whether there is any "oomph" behind the current trend...


View Momentum Indicator Board Online

Executive Summary:

  • The short-term Trend and Breadth Confirm Model remains positive
  • Our intermediate-term Trend and Breadth Confirm Model has been a good guide lately and is still green
  • The Industry Health Model continues to muddle along in moderately positive territory
  • The short-term Volume Relationship is positive, but not by much
  • After flirting with a breakdown, the intermediate-term Volume Relationship model improved last week and remains positive
  • The Price Thrust Indicator moved back to positive last week.
  • The Volume Thrust Indicator ...
Read More
Comments

Yellen Sounding More Like Yellen Again

When it comes to the markets, the slightest change in the narrative can make all the difference at times. And based on the market action yesterday, this might be one of those times.

I wrote on Wednesday that rising bond ...

Read More
Comments

The Next Problem Could Be...

Don't look now fans, but bonds may be back on the list of things to worry about in the stock market. Jeff Gundlach, who has apparently been anointed the new king of the bond market, has suggested that bonds are ...

Read More
Comments

What I've Learned About Bear Markets

As you are likely aware, I've been at this game for a fair amount of time now. Starting in the financial services business straight out of college in 1980, I began gravitating toward the stock market and by 1987 my ...

Read More
Comments

Time To Stay Alert

Good Monday morning and welcome back. It's the start of a new week as well as the semi-official start of the second half of the year, so let's get right to our objective review the key market models and indicators ...

Read More
Comments

Uh, What He Meant To Say Is...

On Tuesday, the stock market experienced its biggest decline in a month (which isn't really saying much based on the lack of volatility seen since mid-May) on the back of a confluence of negative inputs. One of the primary issues ...

Read More
Comments

Apparently It Takes A Village

When a decline in the S&P 500 approaches -1%, I tend to sit up and take notice. Especially when the decline occurs during a period of low volatility and/or comes out of the blue. And generally speaking, when such a ...

Read More
Comments

A Fool's Errand

As we entered calendar year 2017, hope reigned supreme. There was hope for tax reform, reduced legislation, and a plan to rebuild America's infrastructure. And with Republicans controlling the White House and both houses of Congress, getting the new administration's ...

Read More
Comments

Indicator Review: It's a Bull Market Until Proven Otherwise

Good Monday morning and welcome back. Since it's the start of a new week, let's get right to our objective review the key market models and indicators. To review, the primary goal of this weekly exercise is to remove any ...

Read More
Comments

The Primary Driver May Be As Simple As...

The "retail wreck" is real. The shine of financials is fading fast. The technology darlings have taken it on the chin of late. Energy is uninvestable again. Inflation is heading in the wrong direction (well, in the Fed's eyes, anyway). ...

Read More
Comments

Are The Economic Surprise Indices Trying To Tell Us Something?

As the saying goes, "There are three kinds of lies. Lies. Damned lies. And statistics."

Experience has taught me that this is especially true in the investing game as I have seen countless analysts, columnists, and pundits over the years ...

Read More
Comments

The Real Inflation Problem

With Janet Yellen having raised the Fed Funds rate a fourth time last week to a target range of 1.0% - 1.25%, there is/has been an awful lot of talk about inflation. In fact, the current annualized level of inflation ...

Read More
Comments