Here's Hoping Santa Makes The Trip

It was a very busy weekend in St. Louis, visiting our grandson, daughter and son-in-law, so I'm going to keep the subjective side of this report short and let the models and indicators do most of the talking. But first, let me say that watching a two-year old tear into presents is about as much fun as a grandparent can have!

In the spirit of the season, the WSJ has an article about the traditional Santa Claus Rally this morning. To review, the Santa rally spans the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the new calendar year. While we are still a few sessions away from the official starting date, the article points out that the average gain for the seven-day span has been 1.3% for the S&P 500 and that the last time Santa failed to appear at the corner of Broad and Wall was 2015. The problem is the S&P 500 index is currently down 2.8% (however, the "total return" index - which reinvests dividends is currently up 1%). As such, if the bulls hope to push the venerable index back into the black for the year, they've got some work to do.

Our heroes in horns remind us that there are two possible developments that could get the year-end party started this week. First, there is the Fed meeting, which concludes with a Jay Powell presser on Wednesday. The bulls hope that the Fed Chair's comments will be in the spirit of the holidays and take a dovish tilt - as in, a rate hike and then a pause to reflect on the changing economic climate.

The second potential bullish trigger is more of a stretch as a potential government shutdown is slated for 12:01 ...

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Window "Undressing" May Be At Work

The headlines blared that stocks soared Wednesday in response to improvements in the trade war. Apparently, China was making noise about a new policy designed to increase access to the country's economy for foreign companies. Diving into the story ...

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Was That The Soybean Bottom?

It was another wild ride on Wall Street yesterday. Stocks stumbled hard out of the gate, following the lead of most global markets. By 11:00am EST, the DJIA was down more than 500 points, had broken below the October ...

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The Good News: Valuations Are Improving

Due to system maintenance, updates to several key data/models in our indicator boards were not available over the weekend. Thus, our weekly review of market indicators will be postponed until tomorrow morning. But as the title of this morning ...

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All's Well That Ends Well, Right?

The financial press reported that stocks remained "volatile" on Thursday. But since the Dow ended the day with a loss of "only" 79 points and the S&P 500 fell just 4, the attitude appeared to be, all's well that ...

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Tariff Man Set The Stage, Then The Machines Took Over

I opined after Monday's "relief rally" that the move had been a bit underwhelming and that uncertainty appeared to have crept back into the market. By Tuesday morning, traders began to realize that Trump may have over-tweeted the trade ...

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Is Uncertainty Back In The Mix So Soon?

While it may sound strange, perhaps the best word to describe the market action on Monday is, disappointing. Yes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average popped 288 points. The S&P 500 gained 1.1%. The NASDAQ 100 surged 1.5%. And ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 12.3.18 - Fears Fading Away As Santa Loads His Sleigh


The State of the Markets:

Unless you've been living in a cave or don't have access to a TV, computer, smart phone, or even a newspaper, you likely know that Presidents Xi Jingping and Donald Trump laid the ...

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Fears Fading Away As Santa Loads His Sleigh

Unless you've been living in a cave or don't have access to a TV, computer, smart phone, or even a newspaper, you likely know that Presidents Xi Jingping and Donald Trump laid the groundwork for a trade deal ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 11.30.18


Today's Portfolio Review

The G20 meeting presents a quandary here. While this week's clarity from the Fed represents a significant improvement in the near-term environment, the potential for bad news from the Trump/Xi dinner could easily push ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 11.29.18 - One Worry Removed


The State of the Markets:

It didn't take the news-reading algos long to find what they were looking for in Jerome Powell's speech yesterday. And to his credit, the Fed Chairman didn't make it difficult for either ...

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One Worry Removed

It didn't take the news-reading algos long to find what they were looking for in Jerome Powell's speech yesterday. And to his credit, the Fed Chairman didn't make it difficult for either the computers or mere mortal ...

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