420 Investor Weekly Review 09/30/22

Review

There was no important industry news this week.

I distributed this written material to 420 Investor subscribers during the week:

Here are some of this week's highlights for Focus List names:

  • AAWH named two execs as interim co-CEOs and moved its CEO to Executive Chairman. The company retained Russell Reynolds to help find a new CEO. The charges against Abner Kurtin apparently were dropped in Florida.
  • CGC sold its Tweed and Tokyo Smoke stores in Canada to OEG Retail Cannabis for an undisclosed amount.
  • CWBHF announced a distribution agreement with Southern Glazer's.
  • FFLWF opened a store co-located Circle K, owned by its investor, Couche-Tarde, in the Greater Toronto Area.
  • GNLN completed the sale of its headquarters for $9.95 million.
  • JUSHF filed its first Form 10-Q for Q2.
  • LOWLF began selling Lowell 35 pre-rolls in California.
  • PLNHF announced its first harvest in the expanded Nevada cultivation unit.
  • TCNNF opened two dispensaries in West Virginia, giving it a total of 8 in the state. It also launched Khalifa Kush Cannabis in Florida.
  • TLLTF amended its Pennsylvania facility purchase and sale agreement again.
  • TRSSF announced plans to bring the Cookies brand to Pennsylvania.
  • VRNOF CEO George Archos sold about 55K shares at $4.76 and issued a filing that didn't say anything about the purpose, which was to pay taxes on RSUs.

Please check the Focus List, (which has technical, fundamental and valuation ratings as well as a market-cap table). To help track market caps, we maintain tables for the Canadian LPs and the American cannabis operators and ancillary companies.

There were comments in over 110 discussions in the Forum. Don't miss out on this most informative part of 420 Investor! Not familiar with the the Forum? This video will help! This is a great way to track your favorite tickers, even those not on the Focus List, and to get your questions answered quickly.

Market Performance

The Global Cannabis Stock Index hit a new all-time closing low on Friday of 11.26. For the week, it fell 3.8%, which exceeded the 2.8% decline in the S&P 500.

The index, which lost 26% in 2021 following a 5.2% gain in 2020, is down 65.7% in 2022. It currently includes 26 stocks and ended 2021 at 32.85. In September it was down 25.9%, and it was down 23.7% in Q3:

For perspective, the index, which began 2013 at 100, bottomed in August 2013 at 70 after a prior peak of 220 in February 2013 and peaked in 2014 at 1010. The long post-2014 decline ended in February 2016, with the market soaring at the beginning of 2018 to levels not seen since 2014. We took out the 2016 lows by a wide margin in early 2020 and then soared into 2021 before reversing. We recently made a new all-time low:

Model Portfolios

Flying High, up 21.7% in July and 3.9% in August, ended the week valued at $146,998, down 5.7% during the week and down 161% quarter-to-date. This model portfolio was launched on 9/23/13 with $10,000 (paper), and it ended 2013 at $18,225, 2014 at $15,702, 2015 at $9608, 2016 at $49,568, 2017 at $112,891, 2018 at $161,346, 2019 at $165,249, 2020 at $252,409 and 2021 at $294,249. The year-to-date gain was 16.6% in 2021, and the model portfolio is down 50.0% in 2022. The model portfolio has increased 1370% since inception. Flying High has 7 positions and 1.1% cash. During the week, I trimmed one ancillary to add to another.

420 Opportunity, which rose 19.3% in July and 1.6% in August, ended the week at $35,925, down 3.7% and down 15.2% in Q3. Both of these levels are ahead of its index, the Global Cannabis Stock Index. This model portfolio, which was funded with $50,000 (paper) on 4/8/14 and ended 2014 at $17,105, 2015 at $11,418, 2016 at $44,915, 2017 at $91,407, 2018 at $94,616, 2019 at $77,715, 2020 at $105,373 and 2021 at $90,823, has a goal of being fully invested and outperforming the market as measured by the 420 Investor Cannabis Stock Index, which lost 3.8% during the week. In 2021, the model lost 13.8%, while the index decreased 26.0%, and it is down 60.5% in 2022 compared to the index loss of 65.7%. The model portfolio has lost 28.2% since inception, while the overall market has declined by 98% during that time-frame. The model maintains 16 holdings and 0.8% cash. The three largest holdings include (MAPS (10.2%), OGI (10.1%) and CEAD (9.9%). During the week, I trimmed AAWH and added a new position in CCHWF on Monday. On Friday, I exited CRLBF and added to CCHW.

420 Quality, which was funded with $50,000 (paper) on 3/1/17 and was up 20.4% in July and 0.5% in August, ended the week at $50,302, down 3.5% this week and down 14.8% in Q3. In 2021, the model portfolio lost 21.8% compared to the 26.0% loss in the index. In 2022, it has returned -60.2% compared to the index return of -65.7%. It ended 2017 at $109,480, 2018 at $119,053, 2019 at $113,123, 2020 at $161,504 and 2021 at $126,323. To learn more about the model portfolio, which is longer-term focused, please read the description I posted before launch. Since inception, the model has gained 0.6%, while the index has lost 86.1%. The model has 16 holdings and 0.3% cash. The largest positions include OGI (10.9%), MAPS (9.9%) and CEAD (9.3%). During the week, I trimmed AAWH and added a new position in CCHWF on Monday. On Friday, I reduced CRLBF and added to CCHWF.

Calendar

As a reminder, 420i posts a calendar for your convenience, as does New Cannabis Ventures. NCV also posts a separate calendar for conference calls.

  • On Wednesday, Jews around the world will be celebrating Yom Kippur, the Jewish Day of Atonement.
  • On Friday, Tilray will report its fiscal Q1 financials and host a call.

Companies with fiscal years ending in June (May for Canadian Venture stocks that don't file with the SEC) must report their annual financials in September. Companies with years ending in January, April and October must file their quarterly reports by mid-September (or by late September for Canadian-listed stocks that aren't on the TSX or NEO or filing with the SEC).

Posted to 420 Investor on Sep 30, 2022 — 5:09 PM
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