Morning Comment: Is the Trend for Emerging Markets About to Change?

The action in the broad stock market has been quite benign recently…as the S&P 500 index has traded in a range of less than 1% this week…and a range of less than 1.4% since Monday of last week. We’d also note that the average daily volume the past two weeks has been the 3rd and 4th lowest of the year. Only a week in early June and one in early July had lower average daily composite volume than the past two weeks. So even though the stock market remains at a critical juncture…and the S&P 500 moves from slightly below the 3,000 level to slightly above it from day to day…we’re not getting many hints as to which way it’s going to break at this critical juncture…at least not yet.

That’s not to say that the stock market has been boring. In fact, just the opposite has been true…as many individual stocks have seen some very large moves after reporting their earnings. If there was anything to be encouraged about, it was that a couple of big names (like BA & CAT) held-up will in the face of pretty bad earnings reports. However, it’s usually not until we’re 3/4 of the way through earnings season (and the forward guidance that goes with it) before we get a good idea of where we stand on this key fundamental issue.

Moving to the currency markets, after a wild week last week, the dollar has calmed down this week. However, the DXY dollar index has calmed-down at the its 200 DMA…which has been a key support level for the greenback all year. (It actually fell below it for just over a week in late June, but quickly regained that line, so it’s still an important support level to watch.) Having said this…and as ...

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Bitcoin: Look out below!


Bitcoin is breaking below the sideways range it had been in for the past month. It is also taking it down near its 200 DMA. The 200 DMA provided tough resistance for the cryptocurrency back in April, but once it ...

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The Weekly Top 10

THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) “Phase One” is little more than what the President has been offered by China all along.

2) The relationship with China has changed…and the 2020 election won’t change it back.

3) This ...

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Morning Comment: Trump Can't Afford a Complete Breakdown in Negotiations

The stock market was able to retrace 2/3 of what it lost on Tuesday during yesterday’s trading. It was actually a better day until there were 20 minutes left before the closing bell. At 3:40pm, the S&P had retraced 75% ...

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Morning Comment: Within 2% of Key Technical Support Levels


The S&P is within 1.7% from its first key support level...and two of the three most important leadership groups are even closer to their own support levels. Today's "services" data will be important, but all eyes will be on tomorrow's ...

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Midday Comment: S&P 500 testing short-term support


For the second time over the past three trading days, the stock market is seeing fairly steep midday sell-off. It’s obviously not a major decline, but 1% is still a meaningful move. However, also for the second time in three ...

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Morning Comment: Great Potential Opportunities in Energy & Bank Stocks


  • Broken “neck-line” and “positioning” issues mean gold should see more downside movement near-term.
  • Energy stocks are suddenly outperforming crude oil…and Saudi production claims misleading.
  • BOJ shifting bond purchases. That’s good for the yield curve…and thus bullish for the bank stocks. ...
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Morning Comment: AMZN Facing 2 Critical Support Levels

The impeachment investigation is getting an incredible amount of attention…which is no surprise. Let’s face it, it has only taken place three times in our history. (Actually, since speaker Pelosi hasn’t been a vote in the House, the impeachment process ...

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Morning Comment: Can the Banks FINALLY Outperform?


  • We have been cautious on the banks since early Dec 2016
  • They're flat since then...vs. a more than 34% rally in the S&P 500
  • However, this could change IF two technical moves take place


One month after the 2016 election, ...

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Morning Comment: Impeachment Investigation = Re-pricing a Trade Deal & the 2020 Election


We spent a decent amount of time this morning writing our normal piece. In it, we touched-on yesterday’s consumer confidence data…and what it might be telling us about the U.S. consumer. We also talk about the crash in Bitcoin (after ...

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Midday Comment: Add Bitcoin to the "Wild Moves" List.


When volatility in many different markets rises in a significant way, it's rarely a bullish development.


Today’s 11% mini-crash in Bitcoin is taking it below the “descending triangle” pattern that I touched on a few weeks ago….breaking well below its ...

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Morning Comment: The University of Iowa "Wave"


Morning Comment: The University of Iowa "Wave"


  • “Quadruple Witch” expiration today.
  • The current trade talks are not focusing on any of the all-important long-term issues.
  • The global intelligence community was taken completely off guard by the Saudi attacks.
  • China’s stock ...
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