Morning Comment: SEVERAL Markets at Critical Junctures

  • Good day for the stock market, but need more follow-through
  • 10yr Treasury note yield near key resistance (of 1.9%) level
  • Several different markets at critical junctures
  • None of the recent market moves have been compelling...yet
  • When things DO move, they'll move in a big way


Nice record high for the S&P 500, but need more upside follow-through.

Well we got the new highs in the S&P 500 Index yesterday that everyone was looking for, so it was obviously a good day for the stock market. The DJIA is still slightly below its record highs and the Nasdaq Composite is a hair below its July record highs as well…but they are very, very close, so it certainly cannot be called a divergence. Yes, the Russell 2000 remains 2.7% below its April highs, but it has been playing catch-up during the past few weeks, so the action in the small-caps can hardly be called disappointing.

We must say that the “internals” weren’t great…as volume was less than 3bn shares and the breadth on both the S&P 500 and the NSYE Composite Index were just 1.6 to 1 positive, but given that the NYSE A/D line was able to make a new high along with the SPX…and the tech stocks led the way higher, it’s hard to find much fault with yesterday’s action.

Recent moves cannot be seen as anything more than technical bounces (yet).

However, things could change very quickly…with the Fed’s meeting/press conference on Wednesday and the ISM and employment data on Friday. More importantly, besides the fact that most of the broad averages have yet to make a new high, the S&P’s record is only a very slight new high. Therefore, we are a long was from confirming a breakout in the stock ...

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Morning Comment: Is the Trend for Emerging Markets About to Change?

The action in the broad stock market has been quite benign recently…as the S&P 500 index has traded in a range of less than 1% this week…and a range of less than 1.4% since Monday of last week. We’d ...

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Bitcoin: Look out below!


Bitcoin is breaking below the sideways range it had been in for the past month. It is also taking it down near its 200 DMA. The 200 DMA provided tough resistance for the cryptocurrency back in April, but once it ...

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The Weekly Top 10

THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) “Phase One” is little more than what the President has been offered by China all along.

2) The relationship with China has changed…and the 2020 election won’t change it back.

3) This ...

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Morning Comment: Trump Can't Afford a Complete Breakdown in Negotiations

The stock market was able to retrace 2/3 of what it lost on Tuesday during yesterday’s trading. It was actually a better day until there were 20 minutes left before the closing bell. At 3:40pm, the S&P had ...

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Morning Comment: Within 2% of Key Technical Support Levels


The S&P is within 1.7% from its first key support level...and two of the three most important leadership groups are even closer to their own support levels. Today's "services" data will be important, but all eyes will ...

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Midday Comment: S&P 500 testing short-term support


For the second time over the past three trading days, the stock market is seeing fairly steep midday sell-off. It’s obviously not a major decline, but 1% is still a meaningful move. However, also for the second time in three ...

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Morning Comment: Great Potential Opportunities in Energy & Bank Stocks


  • Broken “neck-line” and “positioning” issues mean gold should see more downside movement near-term.
  • Energy stocks are suddenly outperforming crude oil…and Saudi production claims misleading.
  • BOJ shifting bond purchases. That’s good for the yield curve…and thus bullish for the bank stocks ...
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Morning Comment: AMZN Facing 2 Critical Support Levels

The impeachment investigation is getting an incredible amount of attention…which is no surprise. Let’s face it, it has only taken place three times in our history. (Actually, since speaker Pelosi hasn’t been a vote in the House, the impeachment process ...

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Morning Comment: Can the Banks FINALLY Outperform?


  • We have been cautious on the banks since early Dec 2016
  • They're flat since then...vs. a more than 34% rally in the S&P 500
  • However, this could change IF two technical moves take place


One month after the ...

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Morning Comment: Impeachment Investigation = Re-pricing a Trade Deal & the 2020 Election


We spent a decent amount of time this morning writing our normal piece. In it, we touched-on yesterday’s consumer confidence data…and what it might be telling us about the U.S. consumer. We also talk about the crash in Bitcoin ...

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Midday Comment: Add Bitcoin to the "Wild Moves" List.


When volatility in many different markets rises in a significant way, it's rarely a bullish development.


Today’s 11% mini-crash in Bitcoin is taking it below the “descending triangle” pattern that I touched on a few weeks ago….breaking well ...

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