Morning Comment: Dollar Testing First Key Level Support (again)


  • The market is dead flat this week. Waiting on tariffs
  • The DXY dollar index is breaking its 200 DMA (1st support).
  • The next (more important level) is 96 on the DXY.
  • More dollar weakness will be very important for EM's (& other markets)


As it usually does, the stock market rallied on the day the Fed made their regularly scheduled announcement and held a press conference. (We the word “usually” in the previous sentence because Chairman Powell had a couple of stumbles early in his tenure, but he seems to have righted the ship nicely.) The rally, however, was a mild one…and the stock market remains basically dead flat so far this week (-0.14% to be exact). In other words, the focus this week was never going to be on the Fed. It was always going to be on the trade issue…and since we still haven’t received any definitive word on the December 15th tariffs, investors are just sitting on their hands until they get that definitive news on this issue.

Pretty much everyone (including ourselves) is looking for the new tariffs to be delayed/postponed by Sunday…whether we get a “phase one” deal or not. This is already priced into the stock market, so although we’ll probably get a very brief relief rally if/when this news is confirmed, it’s hard to think that it will create any sustained further advance (as it is already priced-in). Therefore, if we’re going to see a powerful move before the end of the year, the “trade announcement” is going to have to include either an implementation of these new tariffs (very bearish) or a roll-back of some of the existing tariffs (bullish). (The market has also priced-in at least SOME chance that the existing tariffs will be rolled-back, so the ...

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Morning Comment Part II...Banks Poised to Breakout?


In our “Morning Comment” this morning, we said that the employment report probably wouldn’t have much impact on the markets…unless it came-in at a much different level than expected. Well, it DID come-in at a level that was much different ...

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Morning Comment: A Delay in New Tariffs is Already Priced-in


Today’s employment report will not be as important as it has been on many other occasions this year. In previous months, it was something everybody was watching because investors believe that it could have had a compelling impact on whether ...

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UNP Could be a Catalyst for the Transports in 2020


  • Transports continue to lag...and remain range-bound.
  • They also remain 8% below their 2018 all-time highs.
  • 11,000 and 11,500 are the two resistance levels to watch.
  • A breakout in UNP should be a positive catalyst for this group ...
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(Quick) Midday Comment: Last Hour Will Be Important Today


The last hour of trading has always been important, but it should be particularly important today.

The S&P 500 has not closed at or near its lows for the day very often at all since the October lows. In fact ...

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Morning Comment: Keep One Eye on German Bund Yields


There are several reasons why long-term Treasury yields remain low. One obvious reason is the slowdown in growth we've experienced this year...both here in the U.S. and around the globe. However another reason is the ultra low ...

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Home Depot: Poised for a ST bounce (& maybe a LT rally).


Home Depot (HD) has become very oversold on a short-term basis. A 9% decline in less than a week has taken its RSI chart on HD to an oversold level...at a time that it is also testing its trend-line ...

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Morning Comment: Michael Bloomberg's Chances are Quite Good


  • Our record on Presidential Elections predictions is quite good.
  • NYC Mayors have a LOUSY record winning higher office.
  • However, Mr. Bloomberg definitely has a lane for success.
  • Enough people want Mr. Trump's policies without Mr. Trump.
  • Two dozen "open ...
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THE WEEKY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) The market acts great, but it’s also getting expensive, overbought and over-loved.

2) The key tech ETFs…& several key tech stocks…are beginning to show some cracks.

3) Ditto for the high yield ...

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What the hell is going on with AMD today???


Although I frequently like to send out notes that give both sides of the bull/bear ledger on a given situation, I almost always take a definitive stance on which side of that ledger I stand at any that time ...

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Morning Comment: Nobody is Selling!!!


  • Never short a dull market...especially when nobody is selling.
  • However, can the next 6 weeks be anything like the past 6 weeks?
  • If it is, sell everything at the beginning of the New Year...because the market will be ...
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Morning Comment: Goldman Sachs (GS) testing KEY resistance


Despite the way it might have seemed, the stock market had really be trading in a relatively tight sideways range for the past two weeks...until Friday. Since the past two week had followed a very nice (6.6%) rally ...

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