THE WEEKLY TOP 10



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) To a certain degree, this is February 2020 all over again.

2) Sentiment is getting VERY bearish, that could be bullish over the short-term.

3) The Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place.

3a) Chairman Powell’s testimony was actually quite hawkish.

4) When oil prices rise significantly, it is usually followed by a recession.

4a) The Fed is NOT accommodative right now, so they won’t offset higher oil prices.

5) It’s almost planting season, and fertilizer prices are off the charts.

6) Updated charts on the S&P 500 and the NDX 100 indices.

7) The KBE bank ETF is close to an important support level.

8) Crude oil has become EXTREMELY overbought.

9) BA & INTC are “too big to fail”…AND “too important…not to succeed”!

10) Summary of our current stance.


1) Based on what we’ve read and heard from many geopolitical experts over the past few weeks, it sure looks to us that the crisis in eastern Europe is not going to get resolved any time soon. This is a big change from what people were thinking a week ago…and it is very reminiscent of what took place at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. No, it’s not exactly the same, but once investors realize the extent of the crisis, the renewed decline in the stock market should be swift.

As we have studied the situation in Ukraine…and listened to (and read) the comments from several different geopolitical experts…there is a strong feeling that Putin is going to have tough time surviving this crisis as the head of Russia. The question is, however…if these experts are correct…how long will it take? Yes, the idea that the world could get rid of Putin as a leader is something that ...

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Morning Comment: The Fed is between a rock & a hard place.....Crude oil is getting overbought



Well, the stock market finally woke up to what the bond market (and energy markets) were telling it recently. As we highlighted yesterday, these other markets were screaming that the situation in eastern Europe is not a good one…as ...

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Morning Comment: The big disconnect...which market is right?


It was another wild ride in the stock market yesterday…as the S&P 500 saw a total of FIVE swings on 1% or more (and three others of 0.5%). Five swings of more than 1% would usually qualify as a pretty ...

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Morning Comment: Norman Bates's Mother


The State of the Union Speech will be delivered tomorrow night…but the President will be able avoid talking about the state of our union (for the most part) given what is going on in Ukraine. Therefore, to a certain degree, ...

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Morning Comment: The Russia/Ukraine issue is not going away any time soon



Well, there is no question that the volatility that we’ve seen all year so far this year, has not gone away. We had another roller coaster ride yesterday…with a nice mid-afternoon rally…but that rally failed in the last hour of ...

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Morning Comment: S&P 500 at a key technical juncture.....NVDA earnings tonight.


The news that Russia had pulled some of its troops from the Ukraine border helped the stock market rally nicely yesterday. The vast majority of the advance for the S&P 500 came in the first fifteen minutes of trading…and its ...

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Morning Comment: Have things gotten better...or worse...since late January?


The futures have bounced off their overnight lows on news that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov supports continue diplomatic efforts with the West on the issue of Ukraine. The futures on the S&P 500…which had traded lower by as much as ...

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Morning Comment: More upside for banks?.....Lindsey Jacobellis and persistence


As much as the market rallied nicely yesterday…and as much as it seems like the market has been rallying in almost a straight line for the last 2-3 weeks, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have actually been stuck in ...

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Morning Comment: PFE breaking support.....FB getting quite oversold.


For the second day in a row, the stock market sold-off late in the day. On Friday, the market had rallied nicely before the drop, so it still closed nicely higher on the day. However, yesterday, the drop took the ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) The indexes rallied last week, but a lot of money was lost. That’s not good for the stock market.

2) The most important development from last week was the ECB’s surprising change ...

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Morning Comment: Will Meta's (FB) Earnings Report Signal An Important Change In Thinking Among Investors?


It was a very interesting day in the stock market yesterday. It opened nicely higher after we got some very positive earnings news out of companies like GOOGL and AMD. However, the rise faded throughout the morning…and the S&P 500 ...

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Morning Comment: The Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place.


It was obviously another wild day yesterday…as the almost 3% decline in the S&P 500 index was completely erased by 3:00…and then it lost 40% of that bounce in the last hour of trading. The bounce looked like it was ...

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