Morning Comment: The Ukraine Crisis Will Be With Us a Long Time....Bitcoin Breakout


With just four days left in the quarter, the stock market continues to bounce off its mid-March lows. The futures are trading slightly higher this morning despite the fact that interest rates are moving higher. (The yield on the 10yr note actually is not moving much, but the 2yr and 5yr yields are indeed jumping higher.) We suppose that the fact that the stock market is still rising in the face of higher yields should not be overly surprising…given that this has been going of for two weeks now.

However, this is not something that can likely go on for very long. When yields rise in a meaningful way, it pretty much always has a negative impact on the stock market eventually. Heck, in 1987, the yield on the 10yr note rose 46% before it had a negative impact on the stock market…and this time around, that yield has risen 120%! Okay, okay…we readily admit that a rise above 10% (like we saw in ’87) is a MUCH bigger deal than a rise to 2.5% we have seen over the past 8 months...but we just wanted to highlight that the move since August has been an extremely significant one. Therefore, it’s something that should create headwinds for the stock market before too long……NO, we are NOT calling for another 1987-style crash. We’re just saying that those who think the stock market has already priced in such a large rise in yields…when the S&P 500 is trading at more than 20x forward earnings…are not looking at history correctly.

The market’s recent reaction (actually non-reaction) to the developments in Ukraine over the past few weeks is perplexing. Sure, the fact that Russia continues to struggle with their goal to taking control of Ukraine is good news…especially when we’re being generous when we ...

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Morning Comment: Can AMZN regain some former glory?.....Ned Johnson


We got some good news and some bad news yesterday. The good news is that the major stock averages regained more than they lost on Wednesday…and the rally came on very good breadth. The bad news is that it came ...

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Morning Comment: The Japanese Yen Has Become Extremely Oversold


At the beginning of week, we said that this week could/should be an important one for the stock market. Well, we still think it is…and today could be the most important day of the week. We say this because it ...

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Morning Comment: Bond yields due for a short-term pullback?


We got yet another strong day in the stock market yesterday…even though there really wasn’t any definitive positive news to account for the rally. That’s okay, sometimes the stock market sees something before most other people do…..Anyway, the rally came ...

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Morning Comment: Things have gotten worse on almost all fronts since January 21st



It was funny, the composite volume at 3:59pm on Friday afternoon was 4.9bn shares…but it finished the day with 7.9bn shares. So there is no question that the expiration definitely had an outsized impact on those numbers by the end ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Just a reminder, we usually try to include points from both sides of the bull/bear ledger each weekend. However, in our “summary,” we always make sure to let you know which side of that ledger we stand at any given ...

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Morning Comment: There are only two kinds of people in the world!


I have not been as close to the markets as I would have liked the past two days because I was travelling to attend a funeral. However, you didn’t have to be watching every tick in the marketplace to know ...

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Morning Comment: China....Crude oil.


The European markets and the domestic futures are all trading higher…on the news that Tom Brady has decided not to retire and return for a 23rd NFL season. (Sure, the story that the discussions between Russia and Ukraine about ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) Russia/Ukraine…the Fed…Leverage. The unwinding of leverage is the most important threat.

2) Earnings estimates are about to fall out of bed.

3) Peabody Energy’s issue last week was much more than just ...

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Morning Comment: Did the other fellow just blink?


Back in October of 1962, in the middle of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Secretary of State Dean Rusk said, “We’re eyeball to eyeball, and I think the other fellow just blinked.” It took place when Soviet Leader Khrushchev signaled his ...

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Morning Comment: Can the bounce in the bank stocks hold?


It was great to see the stock market bounce strongly yesterday…and we liked the fact that the breadth during the pop was quite good. (It was 5 to 1 positive for the S&P 500…8 to 1 for the NDX Nasdaq ...

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Morning Comment: "Sell the news" on crude oil?


We had all the makings of a “turnaround Tuesday” in the stock market yesterday. We had a big decline on Monday…that was followed by more downside movement Tuesday morning. Then, we got a very strong/sharp rally midday…and all of these ...

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