Morning Comment.....Tom Seaver: An


Well, we finally got some good breadth on a strong day in the stock market...as the advancers vs. decliners were 11 to 1 positive on the S&P 500 index yesterday! It was strange that the breadth was only 1.4 to 1 positive on the Nasdaq Composite index and 2.3 to 1 positive for the NYSE Composite index, but at least we got some great numbers on the most widely watched index for the U.S. market......The volume was subdued at just 3.1bn shares, but given that it’s the week before Labor Day weekend, that number is not a disappointment. (It would have been more compelling if it was a big number, but that relatively low-volume reading was not a problem.)

The issue we highlighted (again) yesterday about the options market (negative gamma and the market makers) seems to be getting more attention...as we saw a few more comments from the Street on this subject yesterday. The point is that these buyers...along with the algos...are giving the market its recent one-way move. The big problem is that at some point, the situation will reverse itself...and we’ll get a one-way move in the OTHER direction.

The realization among some investors that the market could (and even should) turn on a dime in a significant way is probably the reason why as the S&P 500 has rallied 4% over the past six trading days (+5.2% for the Nasdaq), but the VIX has ALSO rallied...by a full 20%!. In other words, as much as the small guys are buying calls, some of the smart money is starting to hedge themselves by paying up for puts (which is something we saw at the top in the 2000).

With the unemployment number coming out tomorrow, it could/should give all investors a reason to sit on their hands ...

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Morning Comment: Germany's DAX trying to breakout


Back in 1999, every once in a while we would jokingly exclaim, “The stock market will never go down again in our lifetime!” We did said that because it seemed like the stock market would rise every day no matter ...

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Morning Comment: Suckers.....TRAN.....Trump sets the


  • Don’t follow the suckers. In other words, don’t buy the mega-cap tech stocks up at these levels. They’re now ripe for a powerful decline.
  • The Transports have played catch-up quite nicely, but they’re getting overbought on a near-term basis.
  • Love ...
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Morning Comment:


When I was in high school, the only sport that had a very early “pre-season” was football. (Some people called it “double sessions”...we called it “hell week.”) The other sports started before school got going as well, but not as ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) We were wrong about August, but that does not deter our caution about September.

2) Chairman Powell’s comments last week were expected. Kaplan’s comments were quite telling.

3) An extended narrow rally ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10

THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) Don’t party likes it’s 1999.

2 & 2a) Narrow rallies are not healthy rallies (so it IS something to worry about).

3) The dollar has much further to bounce.

4) Higher dollar ...

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Morning Comment: Bearish on Commodities, NEAR-TERM


It was a very uneventful day in the stock market yesterday...until late in the afternoon when the market gave back its earlier gains. The catalyst seemed to be comments from the “Fed Minutes” from their last meeting...which said the healthcare ...

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Morning Comment: Pounding the table about a near-term dollar bounce

Balloons, confetti, noisemakers, etc......No, we’re not talking about the Democratic National Convention. We talking about how the S&P 500 finally closed above the February closing highs yesterday...after bumping up against that level for over a week! Of course, there is ...

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Morning Comment: The Dollar Stands at a Key Technical Juncture

There is no question that the stock market continues to act will, but there is also no question that investor enthusiasm is waning as we approach the an all-time high in the S&P 500 Index. This lack of enthusiasm could ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10



We think it’s important to remind people from time to time that we always try to highlight issues from both sides of the bull/bear ledger each weekend. Therefore, some of our comments sometimes conflict with one another. However, we always ...

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Morning Comment: Congress won't care until the stock market starts to care.



The S&P did not quite close at an all time high yesterday, but it came about as close as it could without reaching that level on a closing basis...as it missed by only 5 points. In other words, the fact ...

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Morning Comment: Sharp short-term are not always fundamentally based.


We think that the action in the gold market yesterday...and the reasons being given for that move this morning...is a classic example of how Wall Street (stupidly) tries to give a fundamental reason for EVERY SINGLE move in the markets...even ...

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