THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY T0P 10


Table of Contents:

1) The Fed is telling us that they’re that it will take more than just a further slowdown in growth to cause them to shift their policy.

2) It will take more than a weaker economy to push inflation down to an acceptable level.

3) Deep corrections and bear markets don’t bottom at 16x-17x earnings.

4) The MACD charts on the SPX & NDX still look encouraging (but they have to rally more immediately).

5) Don’t look for pre-pandemic levels to give much support for the market or economy.

6) Another “lower-low” in the chip stocks. That’ not good at all.

7) What is the rally in the Treasury market really mean for stocks?

8) China’s stock market needs a breather near-term, but it does look quite good.

9) The 200-week moving average is critical support for the STOXX Europe 600 Index.

10) Summary of our current stance.


1) There is little question that the focus for investors is starting to shift a big from concerns over inflation…to the concerns about slowing growth. The problem in our minds is that too many investors don’t realize that a significant slowdown in growth is not going to force the Fed to shift their policy away from their current policy. They’ve told us that their number one fight is against inflation…even at the expense of growth. Too many investors don’t want to believe them…and that’s a mistake.

It is amazing to us that so many people think the Fed will change their policy in a meaningful way if the economy slows further. The Fed has been emphatic about telling us that they will do whatever it takes to fight inflation…even if its at the expense of the economy. In other words, unless we see some major ...

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Morning Comment: H&S pattern for AMZN?...What will it say about the consumer?


The stock market couldn’t quite get any more upside follow-through from the rally that began late last week. Instead, an early morning advance was reversed…and the major averages closed in negative territory. That said, it was not a horrible day ...

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Morning Comment: Former NY Fed President Dudley gives us a SERIOUS warning.


The stock market saw some nice upside follow-through from Friday’s rally…and it came on good breadth (7 to 1 positive for the S&P 500 and 6 to 1 for the NDX 100)…and solid volume. (Yes, the composite volume fell by ...

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Morning Comment: How much will a more aggressive Fed help?


As we have all heard, there have been calls for the Fed to raise interest rates by more than 50 basis points at this meeting. In fact, market is pricing in a 75 basis points hike (based on the FFF), ...

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Morning Comment: Inflation will be higher for longer and that's not good for risk assets.


Don’t you just love the sell-side of Wall Street? There seems to be an unwritten rule that you cannot call for a recession unless we’re already well into one (or sometimes, not until it’s already over). Instead, they say that ...

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Morning Comment: Will CPI be bullish?......Ethereum is testing important support


If there is one thing that stands out to us about the short-term picture in the marketplace right now is that so many people are looking for a bullish number out of tomorrow’s CPI inflation report. Even the bears are ...

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Morning Commen: Energy stocks ripe for another short-term pullback....FB is cheap.


In our weekend piece last weekend, we highlighted how the energy stock ETFs (the XLE and XOP) had become overbought on several of their weekly charts (and even the monthly chart when it comes to the XLE)…and thus they were ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) There was nothing fundamental about last week’s (somewhat expected) bounce.

2) The Fed cares more about high inflation than a weak economy.

3) When markets rise in an extreme manner, they always ...

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Morning Comment: Fly the flag with weekend!


We want to begin this morning’s piece by taking a moment to honor those who have given the “last full measure of devotion” to defend our country…now that we’re heading into Memorial Day weekend. However, before we do that, we ...

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Morning Comment: Yet ANOTHER "key juncture" for the stock market.




Many times this year, we have said the next few days were going to be very important as to how the next few weeks were going to playout in the stock market. No, we have not been the “boy who ...

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Morning Comment: Will the consumer story strong? We should get some important clues this week.


It was just a short-covering rally?…..That is what the skeptics ask whenever the stock market rallies on one day during an extended correction or bear market. The problem is that pretty much all rallies that take place during a correction/bear ...

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Morning Comment: Is the "forced selling" in the crypto market over for now?


By mid-afternoon yesterday, the S&P 500 Index had fallen to 3,858…within spitting distance of the 3,800 level that so many people (including ourselves) have been saying was a good target for a short-term bottom for the stock market. (Some people ...

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