Morning Comment: Housing Stocks overbought...Still bullish on energy.


Our calls on the housing stocks have worked out very, very well over the past year. We turned bullish on the group in the 4th quarter of last year...and reiterated that stance over the summer when the ITB home construction ETF broke a key resistance level. Both have been VERY profitable calls.

However, back in April we also said that the group was due for a breather...which is exactly what took place. Right now, despite some better housing data, the group looks ripe for another breather.

Moving to the energy sector, we believe the decline in crude oil of the past two days is nothing more than a normal pull-back after an historic rally on Monday. We also believe the attacks on the Saudi oil fields last weekend is a game changer...as it will raise the risk premium for crude oil going forward. Therefore, the energy stocks have some decent upside potential as we move through the rest of the year.

To read the details of our arguments on these two topics...and to see the charts we're looking at, please click here to subscribe to our newsletter, The Maley Report.



Matthew J. Maley

Managing Director

Chief Market Strategist

Miller Tabak + Co., LLC

Founder The Maley Report

TheMaleyReport.com

275 Grove St. Suite 2-400

Newton, MA 02466

617-663-5381

mmaley@millertabak.com


Although the information contained in this report (not including disclosures contained herein) has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, the accuracy and completeness of such information and the opinions expressed herein cannot be guaranteed. This report is for informational purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be construed as an offer to sell, or a solicitation to buy, any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be appropriate for all investors. Trading options is not ...

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Morning Comment: Bullish "Game Changer" for Energy Stocks


  • Many see the bounce in oil will be short-lived.
  • However, the "risk premium" HAS to be raise for crude.
  • This should put a floor under crude.
  • This, in turn, should give investors confidence in the group.
  • A group that is ...
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Morning Comment: Can Energy Stocks Finally Outperform?


  • Stocks a bit lower on higher oil prices, but the response if fairly benign so far.
  • Not everybody is so sure that the production will come back quickly…or that the situation will not escalate.
  • The Transports (led by the rails) ...
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Morning Comment: TLT Treasury ETF Nearing KEY Support.


My call for a sharp pull-back in the Treasury market (and thus a sharp rise in long-term interest rates) just before Labor Day was SPOT-ON! When the vast majority of pundits were saying that central bank liquidity would keep both ...

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Morning Comment: We will NEVER forget.


  • Scooby-Do, where are you?
  • Will Trump continue to follow the script on trade?
  • The "rotation" is algo driven right now.
  • A "tradable" bounce in rates or a long-term change in trend?
  • Tech will face headwinds for many, many months.
  • AXP ...
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Morning Comment: Forget about "rotation" for most groups.


As we pointed out recently, the Treasury market had reached an overbought level (in the TLT Treasury ETF) that had never been seen before…and the oversold level on the yield of the U.S. 10yr Treasury note had reached a level ...

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Morning Comment: Will "Fed Speak" Move the Markets This Week?


It's September, but it's not the calendar that's the concern!

Well, here we are...September...traditionally the worst month of the year. HOWEVER, the real concerns for investors should derive from the developments of the past few months, not the calendar. These ...

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The Weekly Top 10: Look out below.


The Weekly Top 10


1) If you want to maximize your investment returns, spending a lot of time trying to figure out when the next recession is coming is a not good use of your time. We can still have ...
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Morning Comment: Bitcoin Testing VERY Important Support


The bond market is not reacting to China's dovish comments on trade.

The equity futures are trading almost 1% higher this morning due to dovish comments out of China on the trade negotiations. They said they wanted to emphasize the ...

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Morning Comment: Important Leadership Groups Testing Key Support (again).


  • Even though the consumer is strong, the U.S. economy is definitely slowing…and earnings growth in the U.S. is grinding to a halt. The trade war is a headwind for both of these issues.
  • The Russell 2000, the Transports and the ...
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Morning Comment: The Fed's New Message is Clear.


The market will impact the Fed, not the other way around.

We don’t know why people keep talking about the Fed when it comes to the upcoming moves for the stock market. That is a waste of time right now. ...

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Morning Comment: Housing stocks breaking out.


  • When trying to figure out how the market will react to an “highly anticipated event,” it’s important to note how the stock market has acted BEFORE this “event” takes place.
  • Despite a slow down in domestic economic growth, the ITB ...
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