Morning Comment: H&S pattern for AMZN?...What will it say about the consumer?


The stock market couldn’t quite get any more upside follow-through from the rally that began late last week. Instead, an early morning advance was reversed…and the major averages closed in negative territory. That said, it was not a horrible day by any means. The decline came on lower volume…and breadth that was basically flat. Therefore, although it was disappointing that the stock market didn’t get some more upside follow-through, it was not the kind of day that told us that this most recent bounce is going to roll back over in a significant way immediately. In other words, the jury is still out.

Both the bulls and the bears had something they could feel good about from Chairman Powell’s testimony yesterday.. His comments that the Fed would stay nimble gave the bulls the feeling that the Fed could pivot earlier than most people are expecting right now. On the flip side, the fact that Mr. Powell said that it would be “very challenging” to achieve a soft landing gave fodder to the bears as well…….The second day of his testimony is today, but the second day of his semi-annual (two-day) testimony is rarely something that produces any market-moving news. This doesn’t mean we won’t get anything to chew on from Mr. Powell today, but it looks like the bigger news out of DC today will likely come from the Supreme Court. (However, those rulings will have a bigger impact on political issues than financial ones.)

It is becoming clearer by the day that the consumer is not going to stay as strong in the second half of the year as they were in the first half. The pent-up demand that had developed once again over the winter (with its semi-lockdowns) has faded. Searches on travel websites are starting to fall…and ...

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Morning Comment: Former NY Fed President Dudley gives us a SERIOUS warning.


The stock market saw some nice upside follow-through from Friday’s rally…and it came on good breadth (7 to 1 positive for the S&P 500 and 6 to 1 for the NDX 100)…and solid volume. (Yes, the composite volume fell by ...

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Morning Comment: How much will a more aggressive Fed help?


As we have all heard, there have been calls for the Fed to raise interest rates by more than 50 basis points at this meeting. In fact, market is pricing in a 75 basis points hike (based on the FFF), ...

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Morning Comment: Inflation will be higher for longer and that's not good for risk assets.


Don’t you just love the sell-side of Wall Street? There seems to be an unwritten rule that you cannot call for a recession unless we’re already well into one (or sometimes, not until it’s already over). Instead, they say that ...

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Morning Comment: Will CPI be bullish?......Ethereum is testing important support


If there is one thing that stands out to us about the short-term picture in the marketplace right now is that so many people are looking for a bullish number out of tomorrow’s CPI inflation report. Even the bears are ...

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Morning Commen: Energy stocks ripe for another short-term pullback....FB is cheap.


In our weekend piece last weekend, we highlighted how the energy stock ETFs (the XLE and XOP) had become overbought on several of their weekly charts (and even the monthly chart when it comes to the XLE)…and thus they were ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) There was nothing fundamental about last week’s (somewhat expected) bounce.

2) The Fed cares more about high inflation than a weak economy.

3) When markets rise in an extreme manner, they always ...

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Morning Comment: Fly the flag with weekend!


We want to begin this morning’s piece by taking a moment to honor those who have given the “last full measure of devotion” to defend our country…now that we’re heading into Memorial Day weekend. However, before we do that, we ...

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Morning Comment: Yet ANOTHER "key juncture" for the stock market.




Many times this year, we have said the next few days were going to be very important as to how the next few weeks were going to playout in the stock market. No, we have not been the “boy who ...

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Morning Comment: Will the consumer story strong? We should get some important clues this week.


It was just a short-covering rally?…..That is what the skeptics ask whenever the stock market rallies on one day during an extended correction or bear market. The problem is that pretty much all rallies that take place during a correction/bear ...

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Morning Comment: Is the "forced selling" in the crypto market over for now?


By mid-afternoon yesterday, the S&P 500 Index had fallen to 3,858…within spitting distance of the 3,800 level that so many people (including ourselves) have been saying was a good target for a short-term bottom for the stock market. (Some people ...

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Morning Comment: Is a



During the first years of our career, nobody would ever have asked, “How much will the markets have to go down before the Fed will shift their monetary policy?” Back then, the thought that the Fed would think about anything ...

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