It should be a quiet day today...as the bond market is closed for Columbus Day (or whatever the call it now)...and a lot of market participants (both bond & stock market players) have taken a three-day weekend. To be honest, we’re a bit surprised that the futures are trading higher this morning. There really isn’t any new-news...and the market has become a overbought on a very-short-term basis after rising 9 out of the last 12 trading sessions. However, sometimes the momentum in the market place gets so strong that it just keeps on going day after day after day...just like it did in late February and early January of this year...and in late August and the very beginning of September.
The problem is that when markets move upward in a relatively straight line...and don’t take any “breathers” along the way (especially when they rise takes place in a situation where no “new-news” is fueling the rise)...it makes the market susceptible to a scary decline at some point in the future. Needless to say, this is exactly what we got in February and September of this year. In other words, investors seem to be buying this market on the “hope” of a new stimulus package (which probably won’t be agreed to unless the stock market falls)...and that we won’t get a contested election. This is great...and it could be a reason for short-term players to continue to buy the market. However, as we highlighted in our weekend piece, the inability to pass a fiscal deal at a time when more layoffs are being announced...and our strong opinion that a “blue wave” will not be bullish for the stock market...tells us that investors will NEED to remain very, very nimble through the end of this year.
That said, the market could definitely rally further over the next few weeks...and as we also said this past weekend, the action in the SMH semiconductor ETF and the Russell 2000 over the next week or so should tell us if this rally does still have some legs left in it. If these areas of the stock market continue to rally...either immediately or after a very short “breather”...it’s going to take them meaningfully above some key resistance levels...and help the market retest the old highs of early September. If they roll-over in a significant and sustainable manner, it’s going to mean that the stock market is coming back to reality...and thus we’ll see the kind of “lower-low” in October that we usually see when the stock market has a rough September. (When we say “back to reality”...we’re talking about the reality of the upcoming second wave of the coronavirus, the beginning of a new round of layoffs, and a very overvalued stock market.)
Therefore, the next 5-7 trading days should be very important...and once the bond market participants come back from protesting Christopher Columbus...and the earnings season begins...we should get a better idea of how the stock market will act prior to the November election.
Finally, we’d just like to say that New York sports teams have become irrelevant in the world of professional sports. (NY has never cared about college sports...except for two weeks in March during the NCAA Basketball tournament...but that’s only due to their office pools.) You might think I’m saying this because I’m a big Boston fan and I love dancing on the graves of NY sports. This is not true at all. The fact that NY sports teams suck is not good for professional sports anywhere in the country!!! (Hell, the NY Giants beat the Patriots TWICE in the Super Bowl...but who cares if we beat them NOW...when they’re winless????)
The NY Yankees have the best baseball team...on paper...in the history of MLB. Yet, they didn’t even make the ALCS! They have only won 1 World Series Championship in the last 20 years. You have to go back over 100 years to find another 20 year period when that happened!....The Mets haven’t finished better than 8 games behind the division winner in five years.....The Giants and the Jets are two of only three teams that have not won a game yet this year!!!!.....The Knicks have been an embarrassment ever since Patrick Ewing retired and the Nets have been rampant under-achievers for years.....The Rangers and the Devils have each made it to the Stanley Cup finals once in the last decade, but it has been 16 years since Lord Stanley’s cup has been hoisted in the NYC area...and the Rangers, Devils, and Islanders finished at the very bottom of the Metropolitan Division this past year.
Again, I take no solace in saying all this...and there is no one person or group to blame (they’re all owned and managed by different people). However...as much as I cannot believe I’m saying this...I hope the NY teams can get their act together because their performance this year is not good for professional sports at a time when they are facing such serious problems due to the global pandemic..........Of course, New York fans are now probably to claim they’re rally Buffalo Bills fans, but the business side of professional sports NEEDS the NYC teams to do better next year!!!!
Matthew J. Maley
Chief Market Strategist
Miller Tabak + Co., LLC
Founder, The Maley Report
275 Grove St. Suite 2-400
Newton, MA 02466
Although the information contained in this report (not including disclosures contained herein) has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, the accuracy and completeness of such information and the opinions expressed herein cannot be guaranteed. This report is for informational purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be construed as an offer to sell, or a solicitation to buy, any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be appropriate for all investors. Trading options is not suitable for all investors and may involve risk of loss. Additional information is available upon request or by contacting us at Miller Tabak + Co., LLC, 200 Park Ave. Suite 1700, New York, NY 10166.